HomesUSA.com says seasonal cycle will push sales lower, but prices will stay strong

DALLAS, Aug. 21, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Texas new home market remains “healthy” as the pace of sales showed some improvement and average prices are stabilizing, according to the monthly HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Report released today by its author, Ben Caballero, the nation’s top-ranked real estate agent and HomesUSA.com CEO.

The HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Report uses Multiple Listing Service data – the most complete, current, and accurate information – from the Realtor Associations of North Texas, Houston Austin, and San Antonio.

The 3-month moving average of new home MLS sales in Texas’ four largest markets for July was 5,649 versus 5,803 new homes sold in June.

“New home sales in Texas are healthy, as new home supply and demand continues to move towards a balance that is good for builders and buyers alike,” said Caballero. However, he notes that seasonal cycles will likely push sales lower in the coming months. “Still, average home prices are expected to remain stable,” he added.

In Texas’ top four markets, last month’s 3-month moving average new home price was $462,363 versus $462,307 in June. Dallas-Ft. Worth’s 3-month moving average new home price in July was $499,115 versus $493,647 in June. Houston’s average new home price last month was $427,191 versus $426,314 in June.

Last month’s 3-month moving average of new home prices in Austin and San Antonio were lower in July: Austin’s average new home price was $536,842 versus $541,517 in June, while San Antonio posted an average price of a new home in July of $379,374 versus $385,734 in June.

“It takes months to plan, build, and deliver new homes and two years for developers to deliver building sites, during which time interest rates and government policy can change,” said Caballero, adding, “Because of Texas’ strong growth, it is vital that builders continue to generate more inventory and they are doing their jobs well, despite all of the challenges in the market today.”

“For the past year, new home prices have been flat to slightly down but remain close to near their all-time peak,” Caballero noted.

According to the HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index, the average number of days to sell a new home statewide in July improved month-over-month: 106.67 days versus 108.79 days in June. Caballero points out that new homes have significantly higher Days on Market or DOM than existing homes because most are listed while under construction.

The DOM in Houston last month was 102.97 days versus 107.23 days in June. Austin’s DOM in July was 94.76 days versus 95.16 in June, and the DOM in San Antonio last month was 97.81 days versus 101.04 in June. The DOM in Dallas-Ft. Worth last month was nearly flat at 119.94 days versus 119.22 in June.

Active listings continue to flatten, notes Caballero. The 3-month moving average for active listings in Texas’ top four markets last month was 26,662 new homes versus 26,324 in June.

“I see listings trending lower to flat and continuing to remain there for a few months depending on what interest rates do,” said Caballero. Dallas-Ft. Worth’s active listings in July were 5,814 new homes versus 5,680 in June; Houston’s was 11,062 versus 11,020; San Antonio was 4,393 versus 4,322; and Austin was 5,294 versus 5,301.

Pending new home sales in Texas’ four largest markets were down again marginally last month, with Caballero citing “the market returning to normal annual cyclicality.” The 3-month moving average of pending new home sales in July was 6,473 versus 6,827 in June.

HomesUSA.com is sharing its New Home Sales Report and New Home Sales Index before the Commerce Department releases its nationwide New Residential Sales Report for July, set for Wednesday, August 23, 2023, at 10:00 am Eastern.

The HomesUSA.com monthly report is based on closed sales recorded inside the MLSs by the 10th day of the following month. Sales reported late by agents are not included. The report features 3-month and 12-month moving averages for six essential market data, including Days on Market, sales volume, sales prices, a sales-to-list price ratio, pending sales, and active listings. Caballero explained the 3-month moving average indices track market seasonality, while the 12-month moving average removes the seasonality and tracks the longer trend.

Days on Market – New Homes in Texas (Exclusive Data)
The HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index showed the 3-month moving average of Days on Market decreased in three of the four major new home markets in July. Houston’s DOM was 102.97 days versus 107.23 days in June. In Austin, the DOM decreased to 94.76 days versus 95.16 days in June. In San Antonio, the DOM was 97.81 days versus 101.04 days in June. Dallas-Ft. Worth was the exception, as the DOM remained flat at 119.94 days from 119.22 days in June. (See Chart 1: Texas New Homes Days on Market)

Texas New Home Sales Data
Based on all available local MLS data, total new home sales in two of the four major new home markets were lower last month, according to the 3-month moving average. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, new home sales decreased to 1,975 versus 2,097 in June. In Houston, July’s total sales were 1,875 versus 1,951 in June. In Austin, new home sales increased in July to 918 versus 895 in June. San Antonio new home sales in July rose to 882 versus 859 in June. (See Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales)

Texas New Home Prices
The average price of new homes in two of the four major new home markets were higher last month. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, the 3-month moving average price for new homes increased in July to $499,115 from $493,647 in June. In Houston, the average new home price was higher in July at $427,191 versus $426,314 in June. Austin’s 3-month moving average price decreased in July to $536,842 from $541,517 in June. In San Antonio, the average new home price also decreased in July to $379,374 versus $385,734 in June. (See Chart 3: Texas New Home Prices)

Texas Sales-to-List Price Ratio
Cumulative new home sales appear to be stabilizing near 100 percent of the asking price. The 3-month moving average of the sales-to-list price ratio for July was 97.97 versus 97.83 percent in June. Dallas-Ft. Worth’s ratio was 98.17 versus 98.04 percent in June. In Houston, the ratio was 98.30 versus 98.07 percent in June. In Austin, the sales-to-price ratio in July was 97.53 versus 97.38 percent in June. San Antonio’s ratio in July was 97.34 versus 97.33 percent in June. (See Chart 4: Texas Sales-to-List Price Ratio)

Texas Pending New Homes Sales Data
Based on local MLS data, pending new home sales decreased in all four Texas major markets last month. Data shows pending sales in July were 6,473 versus 6,827 in June. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, pending new home sales last month were 2,372 versus 2,531 in June. In Houston, pending new home sales in July decreased to 1,938 versus 2,035 in June. In Austin, pending new home sales in July were 1,233 versus 1,263 in June. In San Antonio, pending sales last month were 930 versus 999 in June. (See Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales)

Texas Active Listings for New Homes
Data from the four largest Texas MLSs also shows the 3-month moving average for active listings increased in July to 26,662 versus 26,328 in June. Last month, three of the four Texas major markets posted higher active listings. Dallas-Ft. Worth’s active listings in July were 5,814 versus 5,680 in June. Last month’s active listings in Houston were 11,162 versus 11,020 in June. In San Antonio, active listings increased in July to 4,393 versus 4,322 in June. Austin was the anomaly, as active listings in July decreased to 5,294 from 5,301 in June. (See Chart 6: Texas Active Listings and Chart A: 12-Month Moving Averages)

About the HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index
The HomesUSA.com Index is reported as both a 3-month and 12-month moving average of the Days on Market (DOM) for new homes listed in the local Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) for Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Created by Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com, it is the first Days on Market index to track Texas new home market and includes homes listed while under construction.

*Note: Texas data denotes a combination of its four largest new home markets – Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin and San Antonio, which comprises the vast majority of new home sales and MLS data statewide.

About Ben Caballero and HomesUSA.com®
Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com, is a three-time Guinness World Record title holder for ‘Most annual home sale transactions through MLS by an individual sell-side real estate agent – current.’ Ranked by REAL Trends as America’s top real estate agent for home sales since 2013, Ben is the most productive real estate agent in U.S. history. He is the only individual real estate agent to exceed $3 billion in residential sales transactions in a single year (2022); the first agent to exceed $2 billion (2018, 2019, 2020); and the first agent to exceed $1 billion (2015, 2016, 2017). An award-winning innovator and technology pioneer, Ben works with more than 60 home builders in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. His podcast series is available on iTunes and Google Podcasts. Learn more at HomesUSA.com |Twitter: @bcaballero – @HomesUSA | Facebook: /HomesUSAdotcom.

Note for journalists: You may contact Ben Caballero directly on his cell at (214) 616-9222 or by email at ben@as-husa-cus-wp-prod.azurewebsites.net.

REALTOR® is a federally registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Media Contact:
Kevin Hawkins
(206) 866-1220
kevin@wavgroup.com

Image: Ben Caballero (2023)
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Individual Chart images:

Chart 1: Texas New Homes Tracking – Days on Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-1-Texas-New-Homes-Tracking-Days-on-Market.jpg

Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-2-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Market.jpg

Chart 3: Texas New Home Sales Prices Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-3-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Prices-Market.jpg

Chart 4: Texas Sales-to-List-Price Ratio Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-4-Texas-Sales-to-List-Price-Ratio-Market.jpg

Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-5-Texas-Pending-New-Home-Sales-Market.jpg

Chart 6: Texas Active Listings for New Home Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-6-Texas-Active-Listings-for-New-Homes-Market.jpg

Chart A: Texas 12-Month Moving Averages Market – July 2023: /wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Chart-A-12MonthChart-DataOnly.jpg

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